← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 47% | 47% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.21 | fair |
| Aves win | 22% | 24% | 4.39 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 39' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 50' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Maritimo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Maritimo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Washington · Aves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Paulo Machado · Aves |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alexandre Guedes · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Viktor Lundberg · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 930.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1568.30 | 1414.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.23 | -5.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 72.75 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 46.75 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |