← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 67% | 72% | 1.45 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.42 | fair |
| Boavista win | 11% | 10% | 8.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 55' | ⚽ | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 74' | ⚽ | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 85' | 🟨 | Vagner · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 15.00 |
| 838.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1498.94 | 1925.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.58 | 1.17 |
| eye test v1 | -1.31 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.26 |
| state index | -0.41 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |