← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 50% | 50% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 22% | 22% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Rafael Costa · Moreirense FC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Mohamed Abarhoun · Moreirense FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Abner · GD Estoril Praia |
| 63' | 🟨 | Iago Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Zizo · Moreirense FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ronaldo Peña · Moreirense FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 0 | Fouls | 0 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 193.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.02 |
| elo | 1577.32 | 1475.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.84 | 1.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 25.73 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |