← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 43% | 39% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.31 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 28% | 31% | 3.49 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | André Leão · Pacos Ferreira |
| 37' | ⚽ | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 51' | ⚽ | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 72' | 🟨 | Xavier · Pacos Ferreira |
| 75' | ⚽ | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyler Boyd · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 0 | Fouls | 0 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 648.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.89 |
| elo | 1478.43 | 1493.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.57 | -17.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.53 |
| league points | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |