← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 83% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 13% | 9.35 | value: +25% |
| Chaves win | 4% | 4% | 24.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
| 53' | 🟨 | Óliver Torres · FC Porto |
| 64' | 🟨 | Djavan · Chaves |
| 75' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 86' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 88' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 100.00 | 435.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.75 |
| elo | 1859.52 | 1487.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.96 | -25.70 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.25 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.61 |
| state index | 1.44 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |