← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 62% | 58% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +17% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 16% | 15% | 6.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Óscar Barreto · Rio Ave FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Filipe Augusto · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Lisandro López · Rio Ave FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nadjack · Rio Ave FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrija Živković · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 26 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days |
| 1882.00 |
| 817.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.31 |
| elo | 1596.89 | 1931.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.26 | 4.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.26 |
| state index | 0.84 | 1.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |