← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 46% | 44% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.26 | value: +7% |
| CD Tondela win | 24% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |