← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 42% | 31% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +15% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 28% | 35% | 3.44 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | David Bruno · GD Estoril Praia |
| 26' | ⚽ | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 48' | ⚽ | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 50' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 55' | 🟨 | Joel · GD Estoril Praia |
| 62' | ⚽ | Heliardo · CD Tondela |
| 69' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 71' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 23 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 627.00 | 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.38 |
| elo | 1466.23 | 1551.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.39 | 35.60 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -1.67 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |