← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 35% | 38% | 2.76 | value: +6% |
| Boavista win | 34% | 29% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 29' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Óscar Barreto · Rio Ave FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rochinha · Boavista |
| 75' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Boavista |
| 76' | ⚽ | Rochinha · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Pedro Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 1776.00 | 1868.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.76 |
| elo | 1515.49 | 1580.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.65 | 23.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |