← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 54% | 47% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.92 | value: +4% |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 21% | 26% | 4.60 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 41' | ⚽ | Heliardo · CD Tondela |
| 64' | ⚽ | Kaká · CD Tondela |
| 88' | 🟨 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 537.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.86 |
| elo | 1463.35 | 1638.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.45 | -26.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.64 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.79 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |