← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 58% | 71% | 1.67 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.31 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 19% | 12% | 5.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Moreirense FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Pedro Rebocho · Moreirense FC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Frederic Maciel · Moreirense FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alex · Moreirense FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alex · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Boateng · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cauê · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 81.00 | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.64 |
| elo | 1454.13 | 1848.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.94 | -10.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.82 |
| league points | 30.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 2.30 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.68 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |