← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 39% | 47% | 2.51 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 30% | 25% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Adilson Goiano · FC Arouca |
| 5' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · FC Arouca |
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | André Claro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 19' | ⚽ | Carlinhos · GD Estoril Praia |
| 30' | ⚽ | Bruno Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 31' | ⚽ | Adilson Goiano · FC Arouca |
| 39' | 🟨 | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
| 40' | 🟥 | Hugo Basto · FC Arouca |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mateus · FC Arouca |
| 76' | ⚽ | Gustavo Tocantins · GD Estoril Praia |
| 79' | 🟨 | Dmytro Yarchuk · GD Estoril Praia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Adilson Goiano · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Basso · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sema Velázquez · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 81.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.35 |
| elo | 1526.43 | 1461.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.78 | -20.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| league points | 35.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |