← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 66% | 64% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.54 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 13% | 14% | 7.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 85' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · Rio Ave FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Betinho · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1784.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.97 |
| elo | 1565.48 | 1481.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.26 | -14.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 46.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.09 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |