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Vitória SC 0–1 Feirense

← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Vitória SC win57%56%1.70fair
Draw25%29%3.91value: +12%
Feirense win18%16%5.47fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVitória SCFeirense
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—445.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1664.401520.27
elo momentum (last 5)26.8938.54
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
league points62.0045.00
league rank4.008.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.33
season ppg1.881.36
squad age—28.57
state index0.880.44
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00