← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 41% | 39% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.14 | fair |
| Boavista win | 28% | 30% | 3.53 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1687.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1448.39 | 1508.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.97 | -12.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 35.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.22 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |