← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 84% | 85% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 8.68 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 5% | 5% | 20.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Ricardo Valente · Pacos Ferreira |
| 35' | ⚽ | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 38' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 44' | 🟨 | André André · FC Porto |
| 47' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · FC Porto |
| 60' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · FC Porto |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gegé · Pacos Ferreira |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | André Silva · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 347.00 | 164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.37 |
| elo | 1844.87 | 1514.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.99 | 15.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.62 |
| league points | 73.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 1.09 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.28 | — |
| state index | 1.18 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |