← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 61% | 53% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 31% | 4.17 | value: +27% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 16% | 17% | 6.19 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 57' | ⚽ | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 75' | 🟥 | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Erdem Şen · Maritimo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Maritimo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mattheus · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 805.00 | 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.30 |
| elo | 1555.35 | 1523.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.19 | 24.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 48.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.06 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |