← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 51% | 33% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.53 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 22% | 38% | 4.50 | value: +73% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 22' | 🟨 | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 35' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 36' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Pedro Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rafael Batatinha · Chaves |
| 87' | 🟨 | Cássio · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 317.00 | 1778.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.62 |
| elo | 1512.47 | 1585.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.59 | 4.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| league points | 37.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.41 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 26.80 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |