← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 72% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.40 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 10% | 5% | 9.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 712.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1927.08 | 1649.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.05 | 35.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 78.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | — |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.94 |
| squad age | 24.26 | — |
| state index | 1.72 | 1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |