← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 40% | 48% | 2.43 | value: +16% |
| CD Tondela win | 31% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Rafael Crivellaro · FC Arouca |
| 11' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · FC Arouca |
| 53' | 🟨 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jubal · FC Arouca |
| 70' | 🟨 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 75' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · FC Arouca |
| 78' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 54.00 | 529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.79 |
| elo | 1474.21 | 1434.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.41 | 25.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |