← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 37% | 37% | 2.66 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 33% | 34% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | João Diogo · Belenenses |
| 59' | 🟥 | Diego Galo · Moreirense FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alan Schons · Moreirense FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | João Diogo · Belenenses |
| 71' | ⚽ | Nildo Petrolina · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giorgi Makaridze · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 41.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.85 |
| elo | 1483.81 | 1451.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.30 | 27.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 35.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |