← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 46% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
| Chaves win | 26% | 31% | 3.74 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | João Afonso · GD Estoril Praia |
| 23' | ⚽ | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 72' | ⚽ | André Claro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mattheus · GD Estoril Praia |
| 83' | 🟥 | António Filipe · Chaves |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mattheus · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thierry Graça · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.30 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 68.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.59 |
| elo | 1515.77 | 1508.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.80 | -14.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |