← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 46% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Setubal win | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 523.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1440.95 | 1477.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.73 | -14.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | — |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.13 |
| squad age | 24.45 | — |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |