← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 61% | 64% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.16 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 16% | 14% | 6.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Radosav Petrović · Rio Ave FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Franco Cervi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 57' | 🟨 | Roderick Miranda · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1771.00 | 706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.81 |
| elo | 1588.65 | 1945.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.21 | 1.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| league points | 45.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 2.42 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.66 | 1.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |