← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 66% | 67% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.67 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 13% | 12% | 7.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1645.18 | 1478.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.46 | -4.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 59.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.03 |
| state index | 1.15 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |