← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 55% | 24% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.03 | value: +15% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 21% | 48% | 4.49 | value: +114% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Icaro · Feirense |
| 50' | ⚽ | Icaro · Feirense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 78' | 🟥 | Barnes Osei · Pacos Ferreira |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 87' | 🟥 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 156.00 | 431.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.76 |
| elo | 1548.23 | 1490.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.18 | 14.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 69.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 35.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.26 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 24.79 | 27.44 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |