← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.68 | value: +15% |
| Maritimo win | 12% | 14% | 8.06 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 53' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 63' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Donald Djousse · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Patrick · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 797.00 | 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.71 |
| elo | 1569.46 | 1872.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.25 | -1.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.87 |
| league points | 47.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 2.32 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 27.38 |
| state index | 0.43 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |