← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Borlido Matos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 48% | 47% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.43 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 23% | 25% | 4.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Dejan Mezga · CD Nacional |
| 35' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · CD Nacional |
| 42' | ⚽ | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Washington · CD Nacional |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 53' | 🟨 | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 84' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1678.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.16 |
| elo | 1513.12 | 1414.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.28 | -31.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.72 |
| league points | 38.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.65 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |