← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 38% | 35% | 2.55 | fair |
| Feirense win | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.23 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Anastasios Karamanos · Feirense |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Flávio Ramos · Maritimo |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 33' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 39' | 🟨 | Luís Martins · Maritimo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 44' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 44' | 🟥 | Cris · Feirense |
| 74' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Xavier · Maritimo |
| 76' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sergio Barge · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 425.00 | 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.57 |
| elo | 1460.10 | 1560.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.78 | 31.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 68.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| league points | 36.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.57 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |