← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 46% | 37% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.14 | value: +12% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 23% | 28% | 4.31 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 65' | 🟨 | Filipe Melo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 88' | ⚽ | Vasco Rocha · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.12 |
| elo | 1466.10 | 1517.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.90 | 18.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.22 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |