← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 42% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.37 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 29% | 35% | 3.39 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Filipe Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 72' | 🟨 | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 74' | ⚽ | Filip Krovinović · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Víctor García · CD Nacional |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jota · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 118.00 | 1763.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.79 |
| elo | 1426.55 | 1556.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.00 | -6.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.84 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |