← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 70% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.02 | value: +11% |
| Chaves win | 11% | 13% | 8.82 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 41' | 🟨 | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Queiros · Chaves |
| 52' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 55' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Chaves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Davidson · Chaves |
| 72' | ⚽ | André André · FC Porto |
| 76' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Chaves |
| 89' | 🟥 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 302.00 | 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.71 |
| elo | 1525.30 | 1867.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.22 | -15.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| league points | 37.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.30 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.94 | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.30 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |