← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 40% | 46% | 2.46 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.14 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 29% | 26% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 66' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 72' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 77' | 🟨 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kaká · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1671.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.70 |
| elo | 1527.07 | 1447.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.27 | 10.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 35.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.77 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.74 | 24.68 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |