← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 86% | 85% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 11% | 10.35 | value: +9% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 5% | 4% | 21.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 59' | ⚽ | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 65' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 698.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.41 |
| elo | 1922.71 | 1517.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.80 | 32.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.91 | 0.73 |
| league points | 72.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| skill v1 | 1.97 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.96 | — |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.30 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |