← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 46% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Setubal win | 26% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1468.15 | 1634.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.33 | 40.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 35.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.87 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |