← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 41% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
| Chaves win | 28% | 27% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Braga · Chaves |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bouba Saré · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 54.00 | 297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 1.64 |
| elo | 1454.38 | 1525.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.42 | -17.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| league points | 24.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.24 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |