← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 89% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 7% | 9.65 | fair |
| Feirense win | 4% | 3% | 26.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Jean Sony Alcenat · Feirense |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 63' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 64' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 85' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 326.00 | 418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.75 |
| elo | 1854.40 | 1451.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.75 | 17.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.33 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 68.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.34 | 1.21 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.18 | — |
| state index | 1.46 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |