← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.11 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Gegé · Pacos Ferreira |
| 30' | ⚽ | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 50' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 51' | ⚽ | André Leal · Pacos Ferreira |
| 71' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 143.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.27 |
| elo | 1499.43 | 1640.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.32 | 15.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.76 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |