← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 64% | 65% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.32 | fair |
| Boavista win | 13% | 14% | 7.44 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1665.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1626.49 | 1514.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.06 | -1.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 53.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |