← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 40% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Jailson · CD Tondela |
| 71' | 🟨 | César Martins · CD Nacional |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 76' | ⚽ | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 508.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.08 |
| elo | 1417.75 | 1439.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.21 | -8.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |