← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 38% | 35% | 2.54 | fair |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 32% | 36% | 3.03 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 691.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1863.93 | 1944.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.20 | -4.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| league points | 63.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 2.45 |
| squad age | — | 26.50 |
| state index | 1.86 | 1.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |