← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 52% | 59% | 1.88 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.31 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 19% | 18% | 5.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 27' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Belenenses |
| 39' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 43' | 🟨 | Brito Rodrigues · Maritimo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Maritimo |
| 59' | ⚽ | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Patrick · Maritimo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Éber Bessa · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 783.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.84 |
| elo | 1549.35 | 1477.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.39 | -45.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 44.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.10 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.18 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |