← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 39% | 43% | 2.50 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Setubal win | 29% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 52.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1503.61 | 1481.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.02 | 4.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |