← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 59% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.99 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 17% | 15% | 5.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Sema Velázquez · FC Arouca |
| 41' | ⚽ (og) | Jubal · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Filip Krovinović · Rio Ave FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Hugo Basto · FC Arouca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gil Dias · Rio Ave FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Filip Krovinović · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tomané · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1755.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.65 |
| elo | 1544.63 | 1493.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.82 | -6.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| league points | 39.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.07 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |