← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 42% | 45% | 2.31 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | David Ramirez · Moreirense FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · CD Nacional |
| 88' | 🟨 | Filipe Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giorgi Makaridze · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 106.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.60 |
| elo | 1452.47 | 1422.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.67 | -19.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.56 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |