← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 49% | 52% | 2.01 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.41 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 23% | 25% | 4.26 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (og) | Marcelo · CD Tondela |
| 10' | 🟥 | Cássio · Rio Ave FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 42' | ⚽ | Filip Krovinović · Rio Ave FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 71' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 501.00 | 1749.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.02 |
| elo | 1420.90 | 1576.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.37 | 15.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.39 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.82 | 26.76 |
| state index | -1.09 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |