← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 66% | 58% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.43 | value: +4% |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 12% | 19% | 8.22 | value: +56% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 6' | ⚽ | Pedro Santos · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 11' | 🟨 | Baiano · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 58' | 🟨 | Federico Cartabia · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 61' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 80' | 🟨 | Danilo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 81' | 🟨 | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 88' | 🟥 | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Artur Jorge · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 14.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.71 |
| elo | 1636.53 | 1858.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.06 | 6.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 50.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 2.39 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.18 |
| state index | 0.62 | 1.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |