← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 39% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Chaves win | 33% | 29% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.48 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 288.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1523.02 | 1617.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.03 | 26.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 36.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |