← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 47% | 47% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
| Feirense win | 24% | 24% | 4.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Paulo Monteiro · Feirense |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Kuca · FC Arouca |
| 35' | 🟨 | Artur Moreira · FC Arouca |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 51' | ⚽ | Kuca · FC Arouca |
| 65' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 26.00 | 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 1.49 |
| elo | 1481.87 | 1463.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.93 | 28.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 69.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.80 |
| league points | 28.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.05 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |