← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 61% | 68% | 1.60 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.98 | fair |
| Setubal win | 14% | 13% | 6.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1487.13 | 1837.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| league points | 35.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.14 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |